Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.264673 0.299030 0.336279 0.379683 0.428901 0.483011 0.547059
2025-10-26 0.213763 0.259418 0.312645 0.379370 0.460910 0.557488 0.680819
2025-11-02 0.167920 0.217108 0.278273 0.360111 0.467054 0.602493 0.787743
2025-11-09 0.132536 0.181503 0.246069 0.337758 0.465174 0.636807 0.886961
2025-11-16 0.109607 0.158273 0.226011 0.327666 0.477252 0.690693 1.020891
2025-11-23 0.091586 0.138862 0.208032 0.317277 0.486804 0.742031 1.159521
2025-11-30 0.081144 0.128797 0.201870 0.322983 0.520627 0.833743 1.373910
2025-12-07 0.068767 0.113808 0.185901 0.310794 0.524250 0.878683 1.520979
2025-12-14 0.059861 0.103033 0.174974 0.304914 0.536926 0.939720 1.704665
2025-12-21 0.052490 0.093726 0.165087 0.299135 0.548556 1.000195 1.896864
2025-12-28 0.048237 0.089226 0.162785 0.306292 0.584176 1.108321 2.194900
2026-01-04 0.043248 0.082663 0.155833 0.303712 0.600941 1.183443 2.441078
2026-01-11 0.039306 0.077685 0.151437 0.305980 0.628725 1.286629 2.767889
2026-01-18 0.036410 0.074349 0.149756 0.313460 0.668424 1.420565 3.185521
2026-01-25 0.032061 0.067467 0.140066 0.302929 0.668588 1.471787 3.430676
2026-02-01 0.027888 0.060379 0.128993 0.287774 0.656265 1.493906 3.613427
2026-02-08 0.025026 0.055720 0.122447 0.281670 0.663483 1.561379 3.918033
2026-02-15 0.022439 0.051314 0.115856 0.274468 0.666981 1.620745 4.214120
2026-02-22 0.021088 0.049546 0.114965 0.280597 0.703781 1.766840 4.763418
2026-03-01 0.018856 0.045402 0.108006 0.270883 0.699352 1.808966 5.041945
2026-03-08 0.017191 0.042406 0.103387 0.266356 0.707615 1.885332 5.431245
2026-03-15 0.015703 0.039648 0.098984 0.261728 0.714875 1.960254 5.831627
2026-03-22 0.014942 0.038631 0.098799 0.268249 0.753724 2.128472 6.544186